Agentic Commerce: A $3.5 Trillion Opening for Banks?

Agentic commerce, a nascent yet rapidly expanding frontier in digital transactions, presents a significant payment technology opening for financial institutions. This evolving ecosystem, where AI agents execute purchases autonomously, is projected for exponential growth, demanding a shift beyond traditional card-centric payment methods. Financial institutions failing to adapt risk being left behind in a market poised to redefine consumer purchasing habits.

The Ascent of Agentic Commerce Transactions

The financial implications of agentic commerce are staggering. Projections from Juniper Research indicate a total transaction value of $8 billion in 2026, set to skyrocket to an astonishing $3.5 trillion by 2031. This exponential growth underscores a fundamental shift in how transactions will be initiated and completed, moving towards greater automation.

At its core, agentic commerce involves artificial intelligence entities conducting purchases with minimal human intervention. Early solutions, however, still require some manual clicks to finalize checkout, indicating that true autonomy remains an evolving target. Consumer trust, robust tokenization, and underlying technological frameworks all necessitate further development to achieve a fully automated process.

Reshmi Suresh, head of agentic commerce at Global Payments, highlights the need for these foundational elements to mature. Major technology players are already conducting extensive pilot programs to refine the user experience and technical backend. For instance, Microsoft Copilot Checkout launched a feature in January allowing users to complete purchases directly within the Copilot chat interface, eliminating the need for redirection to external sites.

Similarly, Google has integrated agentic checkout capabilities, enabling product purchases through Google Pay and AI Mode in Search. Even prominent merchants like Walmart are developing their own proprietary agents. This widespread experimentation indicates a serious industry commitment to this new paradigm, pushing payment systems to accommodate an invisible, yet powerful, new class of buyer.

Why Cards’ Dominance is Temporary in Agentic Commerce

While cards currently hold a significant lead as the primary payment method in the nascent agentic commerce landscape, this dominance is unlikely to persist indefinitely. Giants like Visa and Mastercard have invested heavily to secure an early mover advantage, recognizing the immense opportunity within this sector. They have been very involved, aiming to cement cards’ role in digital commerce.

However, industry analysts anticipate a diversification of payment options within the next 18 months as agentic commerce transactions proliferate. Nick Maynard, vice president of research at Juniper, succinctly captures the market’s underlying truth:

"People pay the way they want to pay. They don’t pay the way merchants want them to pay or the way banks necessarily want them to pay."

This consumer preference will inevitably drive the demand for broader payment method support.

A critical shift will involve the increased adoption of local payments, including digital wallets and account-to-account (A2A) payments. The absence of robust support for these alternatives could significantly hinder the market’s full growth potential. Juniper’s consumer payment tech report forecasts a massive surge in A2A payments, projecting a 113% growth between 2025 and 2030, expanding from $91.5 trillion to $195 trillion globally.

This projected growth reflects a broader trend towards direct, often lower-cost, payment rails that bypass traditional card networks. Banks must recognize that while cards offer convenience, the future of autonomous transactions demands flexibility and an embrace of diverse payment methods tailored to evolving user — and agent — preferences.

Navigating Global Payment Disparities and Security

The global nature of agentic commerce introduces complexities, particularly concerning payment options and security protocols, which can vary significantly by country. What works seamlessly in one region might face considerable hurdles in another due to disparate regulatory environments and security mandates. This fragmentation demands a nuanced approach from financial institutions.

Itai Sela, board chair for the Secure Technology Alliance and president and chief executive of B2 Payment Solutions, points out that security restrictions on card-not-present transactions play a crucial role. For instance, in Sweden, citizens commonly use BankID to verify their identity online and legally sign documents, a level of digital trust infrastructure not universally replicated.

Europe, under strong customer authentication mandates, relies heavily on 3D Secure as its primary authentication protocol for online transactions. The United States, conversely, lacks similar overarching requirements, creating a patchwork of security expectations. Can an AI agent navigate these diverse authentication landscapes without friction?

Such regional differences highlight a critical challenge for scalable agentic commerce. Payment systems, predominantly designed for human users and their varying security habits, must now adapt to the consistent, yet potentially novel, authentication needs of AI agents. Understanding these nuances is not merely a technicality; it’s a strategic necessity for global expansion.

What Should Banks Do About Agentic Commerce?

The rise of agentic commerce presents banks with a clear strategic imperative: evolve or risk marginalization. This isn’t merely about incremental updates; it requires a fundamental re-evaluation of payment infrastructure and client-facing services. Proactive engagement, rather than reactive adaptation, will be the differentiator.

Here are critical steps banks should consider:

• Invest in Flexible Infrastructure: Modernize payment gateways to support a wider array of payment methods beyond cards, specifically focusing on digital wallets and account-to-account transfers. This involves API-first development to ensure seamless integration with emerging agent platforms.
• Redesign Authentication Protocols: Most existing payment systems were built for human interaction. Banks must collaborate with technology providers to develop authentication methods suitable for autonomous agents, ensuring both security and efficiency without human biometric input or traditional password fields.
• Explore Strategic Partnerships: Collaborate with fintech innovators, AI developers, and even other financial institutions to accelerate the development of agent-friendly payment solutions. Early movers, like Cross River Bank expanding its partnerships, demonstrate the value of such alliances.
• Focus on Fraud Prevention: Autonomous transactions introduce new vectors for fraud. Banks need sophisticated AI-driven fraud detection systems capable of identifying anomalies in agent behavior rather than solely human patterns. How will you identify a compromised agent?
• Educate and Innovate Internally: Foster a culture that understands the implications of agentic commerce across all departments, from risk management to customer service. Develop new product offerings specifically designed for the autonomous economy.

The future of payments is not just digital; it is autonomous. Banks that prioritize adaptability and foresight in this burgeoning sector will secure a dominant position in the coming era of agentic commerce.

Navigating Agentic Commerce Payment Strategies – Disclaimer

The insights provided regarding agentic commerce payment strategies are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or recommendations. Investment decisions and strategic moves should be made in consultation with qualified financial professionals, considering individual institutional circumstances and risk appetites. Market outcomes can vary significantly based on numerous factors.